Democrats Down But Not Out
Don't be fooled by the present disarray in the Democratic Party. The 2028 election will be no walk in the park for Republicans.
I am taking a midsummer break and will resume regular weekly posts August 31st, but watch for special postings. Also, during the summer I will experiment with Substack Notes - - short posts responding to current events.
Trump Did Not Win 2024 In a Landslide
The conventional wisdom is that the Democratic Party is imploding and that the GOP will be a prohibitive favorite to win the presidency in 2028.1 The conventional wisdom is wrong. I begin by slicing and dicing the 2024 results.
Trump received 77,266,800 votes to Harris’ 74,981,300, or 49.9% to 48.4% - a difference of 1.5%. In two of the swing states, Arizona and North Carolina, Trump’s margin was large. However, five of the swing states were very close. Trump won Georgia by 150,000 votes (51% to 48%); he won Michigan by 125,000 votes (50% to 48%); he carried Nevada by 45,000 votes (51% to 48%); he won Pennsylvania by 196,000 (50.5 to 48.1%); and Wisconsin by 81,000 (50.5% to 48.0%).
A shift of just 1.5 points (PP) in Georgia, 1.0 PP in Michigan, 1.5 PP in Nevada, 1.2 PP in Pennsylvania and 1.2 PP in Wisconsin was all that was needed for Harris to carry enough of those states to win the Electoral College. In terms of votes, a shift of just 150,000 in key battleground states would have flipped the election to Harris - this is only one-tenth of one percent of the total vote. Regarding the popular vote2, a shift of 75 hundredths of one percent would have swung the election to Harris.
Key takeaway: The 2024 election was close; there was no Trump landslide.
The Conventional Wisdom
Nearly 100% of pundits, including those of both parties, agree that the present disarray in the Democratic Party makes the GOP a prohibitive favorite in 2028. The fact there is such groupthink is, in and of itself, good reason to believe it is wrong. The conventional wisdom is based on the following:
The Dems lost badly in 2024.
Their party is leaderless and in complete meltdown.
A schism has developed between the progressive and liberal branches.
They have no credible pool of presidential candidates for 2028.
They are losing ground among many critical demographics.
The DNC is imploding and resembles a circular firing squad.
They have failed to accept why they lost and to make needed changes.
They are inauthentic and can’t relate to Americans in flyover land.
Democrats are on the wrong side of all 80/20 and 90/10 issues.
Why the Conventional Wisdom is Wrong
While all the facts listed above as conventional wisdom may be correct, they do not lead inexorably to the conclusion the Dems are facing disaster in 2028. To the contrary, I expect the Democrats to mount an effective campaign and to have a realistic chance to win. The conventional wisdom is wrong because:
As I demonstrated supra, the 2024 election was not as bad as believed.
American political history is filled with examples where a political party, considered down and out, made adjustments and rebounded quickly.
Harris and Walz, without any hyperbole, were the two worst candidates ever nominated by a major party. Nonetheless, they garnered 75 million votes and lost by only 1.5%. The Dems can’t possibly do any worse in 2028 - unless they nominate AOC, Zohran Mamdani, Harris or Walz.
In politics four years is an eternity; the electorate changes; and human nature always overweights recent events and memories over more distant ones.
Democrats value power at all cost and are likely to heal any schisms.
Using past Dem playbooks, they will savage and demonize the GOP nominee.
Elections often hinge on unforeseeable events such as debate performance.
A Way Too Early Peek at 2028
Republicans are loaded with credible candidates including Vance, Rubio, DeSantis, Haley, Kemp and Youngkin. I look for the Democrats to nominate someone outside of politics; some possibilities are Jamie Dimon, Mark Cuban or someone with a military background. Whoever the nominees, I expect a close election - much closer than the current conventional wisdom dictates.
REMINDER: I AM ON SUMMER BREAK. WEEKLY POSTS RESUME AUGUST 31ST. WATCH FOR SPECIAL POSTS AND SUBSTACK NOTES.
I am not opining at this time about the 2026 midterm election.
There is no such thing as the national popular vote; there is only a total of votes within the Electoral College system. If the popular vote really counted, it would be much different than the total under the Electoral College system.
Also: as much as I like what Elon has accomplished, if his hissy-fit leads to a marginally viable third party, the GOP’s chances in 2028 suffer disproportionally.